OU vs Auburn — Head to Head Primer
The snapshot
Oklahoma brings a bigger explosive profile on offense and a nastier pass defense. Auburn is efficient at finishing drives when it gets into scoring range and has enough speed to punish mistakes, but its defense has leaked explosives through the air. Brent Venables looks calm and in command, the blitz menu is open, and the defense is making quarterbacks miserable.
When OU has the ball
OU is living in the chunk play world right now with 52 offensive explosive plays. The Sooners also rate top twenty in early downs success, which keeps the full call sheet available. Auburn’s defense shows a lot of Cover 3 and and a healthy dose of Cover 5 but the numbers say you can still find shots: the Tigers are allowing a positive EPA per play and a high explosive pass rate. That is a green light for our Verts family of pass concepts, play action, and tempo.
When Auburn has the ball
Hugh Freeze’s group can move it when they are rolling. Auburn shows 39 offensive explosives and they are excellent at finishing drives at about 5.5 points per opportunity. The problem for Auburn is what awaits on the other sideline. OU’s defense has lived in the bottom left of the charts with a team EPA per dropback allowed around minus 0.20 and points per drive allowed near 0.40. The Sooners are creating real havoc while still squeezing explosive passes. Add in the new pressure plan and you get chaos on passing downs. Through three games OU has blitzed about forty percent of snaps and allowed only 3.65 yards per play while blitzing. That is Brent getting loose.
OU’s defense is miles ahead…so good it breaks the chart.
Four great stats
Explosive edge: OU offense 52 explosives vs Auburn offense 39. The Sooners generate more sudden yards.
Pass defense clamp: OU defense EPA per dropback allowed ≈ -0.20. That is top tier misery for quarterbacks.
Drive finishing duel: OU offense 4.47 points per scoring opp vs Auburn offense 5.50. Red zone and low red zone calls will swing this game.
Opportunity rate: OU Eckel Rate ≈ 0.46 to Auburn ≈ 0.41. OU reaches scoring chances more often; Auburn converts a touch better once it gets there.
Crank up the Pressure!
Norman will feel like a pressure cooker. Brent is steady on the sideline, the headset is calm, and the front seven is flying. You can see the comfort level in the variety: creepers on early downs, simulated pressure on passing downs, cross dog in the middle, and the occasional max call when it is time to end a drive. The goal is the same each series. Win first down, earn the right to hunt, and force hurried throws into match coverage. On the other side, Ben Arbuckle’s tempo and spacing stress Auburn’s communication in Cover 3. If OU hits two early explosives the Palace turns into a wind tunnel.
Three keys for OU
Own early downs on defense. Keep Auburn behind the sticks so the pressure packages can go to work on second and long and third and long. The entire plan hums when it is pass predictable.
Hunt the deep shots. Auburn’s defense has given up a high explosive pass rate. Build shots off run action and motion, then take the free access when the corners bail.
Red zone resolve. Auburn finishes drives. OU needs doubles in the alley, patient match rules in the tight red, and points on every trip the other way. Trade their sevens for your threes and the math breaks their way.
The finish
OU owns the cleaner path. The Sooners reach scoring chances more often, hit explosives at a higher clip, and field a defense that turns dropback football into a slow drip of frustration. If OU keeps Auburn off schedule and lands a couple of deep punches, the Tigers are playing uphill all night.
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Boomer.
Rob